Volume 3, No. 6, June 2002

Who has won the two decade-long wars in Sri Lanka? The Tigers or the Singhalese? Neither! It is the US vultures that have descended on their warring prey to establish a mini military presence on this strategic island, through their Norwegian representatives. Oslo played a similar role in the Israeli–Palestinian negotiations, acting as the hatchet man of the US. Hardly has the agreement been reached, that imperialist military generals have already established themselves, and begun dictating terms to both, the Sri Lankans and the Tigers. The LTTE have not got Eelam, nor have the Sri Lankans got full control of the Northeast. No political settlement is taking place, only a mere adhoc ceasefire arrangement, with an ‘interim administration’ of a semi-permanent nature, that will leave scope for continuous conflict (which has already begun with 200 complaints to the ‘peace Monitors’), allowing the imperialist vultures a greater and greater presence in the name of controlling the conflict. In a style reminiscent of the India-Pak division, a LoC (line of Control) has been created between LTTE held areas and Sri Lankan held areas to create a situation of indefinite uncertainty and perpetual conflict. In fact, over two years back, the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies came out with a proposal for a "loose confederation" comprising two autonomous units; one a predominantly Tamil one, and the other Sinhala. The present proposed agreement is basically along these lines. In this new game in Sri Lanka, the new Rani Wickremasinghe government is acting as an outright stooge of the US, blindly implementing all their instructions.

Sri Lanka is a key port on the sea route linking the West to the East. The US has a strategic stake in the "new silk route" from the Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean to the Sea of Japan. With US imperialism’s new aggressive role after Sept.11, the US and Indian navies have already begun patrolling the Straits of Malacca, the US has re-established a military presence in the Philippines, and now comes the agreement in Sri Lanka. This latest step in Sri Lanka is part of a systematic geo-political strategy of the US to seize control, of the sea routes, to ensure unhindered ‘trade’. The Tamil-controlled areas of Sri Lanka have a number of important deep-sea ports.

Meanwhile, the guerrilla leader, Prabhakaran, is quickly metamorphosing into a politician, aided by his political chief, Anton Balasingham. The latter, with his long-standing imperialist links in Europe, is a key factor in the negotiations, notwithstanding his failing health. One only hopes that the LTTE does not go the KLA (Kosovo) way!! They has said they support a free market economy. At present they are demanding an ‘interim administration’ for the entire North-East, within the Sri Lankan Union and have kept their fire-power in tact, unable to trust the Buddhist chauvinists, who dominate Sri Lankan ruling-class politics. It is to be seen whether they are able to assert the same type of independence from the US and the Indian ruling-classes. The US strategy is to get the LTTE into prolonged negotiations, and a lengthy ceasefire, which destroys their fighting capacity and gradually pulls them into the ‘mainstream’. A method successfully adopted with the Nagas and numerous national liberation movements (and also Marxist movements) over the world. In all such cases the rebels become the new rulers, ruthlessly exploiting their people, while pathetically licking the boots of the imperialists, particularly the US.

On the Sri Lankan side the newly elected prime minister of the UNP government, is showing a much greater willingness to quickly accept the new imperialist formulae, even though it directly impinges on the sovereignty of Sri Lanka. They have totally prostrated before the US imperialists. To cunningly bypasses the need for parliamentary ratification, all drafts are adhoc and do not require any change in the constitution, even though, in effect, they give away far more to the LTTE, than the earlier "interim regional council" proposals of Kumaratunga ; and even more than the "Union of Regions" proposals of 1995. Both were to have been accompanied by a change in the constitution. But by not making the arrangement formal the door is being left open to continuous conflict. With a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) already signed, the details of the ‘interim administration’ proposed by the LTTE for the North-East are to be worked out in negotiations due to start in Thailand in mid-June. Of course, this will take place only if the Government lifts the ban on the LTTE. The LTTE has, from the very start made it very clear that there will be no talks unless the ban on it is lifted. But, the powerful buddhist chauvinists are vehemently opposed to the present agreement and can upset the process taking place. Also the President, Kumaratunga is opposed to the "interim administration". Ever the PM is begining to retract on the proposal.

But before coming to the details of the negotiations, let us briefly look at the ground-level situation that has resulted in this peace process.

At the ground level the LTTE has, till today, generally maintained the military initiative. It is their political capitulation to imperialist pressure, in the wake of the Sept.11 events that have forced the pace of the ‘peace’ negotiations. Their massive offensive in mid 2000 saw big defeats to the Sri Lankan army. But, with huge international support (particularly Israel), and tacit support from India, the government was able to prevent a rout, and, in fact, stopped the offensive. The newly seized areas stayed in LTTE hands, but the Jaffna peninsula did not come under its control.

After that the SL army tried some offensives but they were not particularly successful, often suffering big losses on the battlefield. This was particularly so in April 2001, where the army offensive left over 300 of its personnel dead and 1,000 wounded. The LTTE suffered far less casualties. As late as July 2001 the LTTE launched a brilliant attack on the international airport at Colombo destroying a large number of its military and civilian planes. In Sept. 2001 the Army sought another major offensive in Jaffana, where both sides suffered an equal number of casualties. In the same month the LTTE blew up a military vehicle killing 15 air force men.

On the SL side the situation was pathetic with continuous losses and desertions of up to 25,000 men from the Sri Lankan military (over the entire 2-decades of war). Also the government was faced with massive defense expenditures, reaching nearly $ 1 billion in the year 2001 — i.e. 25% of the total budget expenditure. What made matters even worse was the fact that, for the first time in its history the country’s economy actually shrank in the year 2001 — it showed a negative growth rate of minus 0.6%.

So, at the ground level it was basically a stalemate. The LTTE maintained its hold over large parts of the North East, but could not control the entire Jaffna peninsula. The SL government, though facing continuous military defeats, was able to prevent any significant LTTE victory. In the Tamil North-East, of the 8 districts, the LTTE continued full control of two — Killinochchi and Mullaithivu. Of the 1.7 million Tamils in this region, roughly one million live in LTTE-controlled areas. In these areas they have militarized a large part of the population, organised into large civilian militias. This has acted as a vast recruiting ground for its army. So, it has always been able to replenish its losses on the battlefield, which are estimated to be about 17,000 in these two decades. But, in the last one year it also lost a number of its very senior commanders, due to the covert operations (deep penetration agents) of the enemy. This has affected it quite considerably.

Another factor about the LTTE is that it has relied a lot on international support for its battle at home. A large part of its funds come from Tamils based abroad, with the London office acting as a major center for these operations. Also it has been getting tacit support from a section of the EU, Britain and also a section of the Indian ruling classes. The LTTE has always been keen for pushing for UN involvement, which has been vehemently opposed by the SL government. The EU countries have tried to raise this issue at the UN. Even Kofi Annan has spoken about human rights violations by the SL government. In India, the LTTE was first trained at RAW camps, but even after the breakdown in official relations (with Indian rulers backing the other groups) a section of the Tamil and also Central ruling classes have given open or tacit support to the LTTE.

But after Sept.11 the international picture changed. While the US and Britain had already banned the LTTE, after Sept.11other countries also began to put it on the terrorist list. This brought the required pressure on it, with its access to funds from abroad drying up. Also the US’s aggressive anti-terrorist posture and warnings to all to fall in line, or else, added to the overall process towards a compromise. A change of tone was clearly visible in Prabhakaran’s Heroes’ Day speech of Nov.27, 2001, on the eve of the general elections. He wanted to prove to the imperialists that he is ‘reasonable’, and neither a "separatist nor a terrorist". Also it became clear that some agreement had been worked out with the then UNP opposition and the Tamil parliamentary parties. With the victory of the UNP at the polls the stage was set for the ‘peace process’ to proceed with rapid pace. The Norwegian ‘facilitators’ soon became ‘arbitrators’ and now ‘dictators’.

Just prior to the elections, in end Nov.2001, Karl Indurfurth said that the US strongly backed Norway’s efforts to facilitate dialogue between the LTTE and the SL government. The signs of the compromise were there during the election process itself. This was indicated by the sudden support given to the LTTE by the Tamil parliamentary parties and also the LTTE’s tacit support to the UNP.

In a significant development, the main Tamil parliamentary party in SL, the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), said that it supports the "freedom struggle" being waged by the LTTE. This was the first time that the Party had adopted that line after distancing itself from Tamil militancy in the 1980s. They said that the next government should begin peace talks with the LTTE and offer a political solution that would give the Tamils "full autonomy". These remarks came days after the alliance of four Tamil parties — the TULF, TELO, ACTC, EPRLF — signed an agreement, nominating the LTTE as the sole representative authority to negotiate on behalf of the Tamil people with the SL government.

After the UNP victory, the LTTE announced a unilateral truce for a month from Christmas Eve. The UNP reciprocated by lifting security restrictions in Colombo, and on Jan.15 of this year brought in new regulations allowing supplies into LTTE areas. With these measures the government met at least two pre-conditions that the Tigers had placed as "essential pre-requisites" for talks. Both sides requested the Norwegians to restart the peace process.

On February 7 the Norwegian top brass entered Colombo with their Memorandum of Undertaking (MoU) already signed by the LTTE. This was promptly signed by the UNP chief. While the LTTE and the UNP have been quick to sign the US sponsored MoU, the president, Kumaratunga, has openly voice her dissatisfaction.

The MoU contains the conditions and rules for a permanent ceasefire between the LTTE and the SL government. The present ceasefires, extended on a monthly basis, were applicable to land-based activities alone; the MoU is applicable to land, sea and air-based activities.

The key aspect of the MoU is a provision to monitor the ceasefire. This will be fully in the control of the imperialists who will comprise the so-called Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission (SLMM). It is vested with the authority "to take prompt and immediate action on complaints made by either party". It will be an international body, with representatives from Sri Lanka, the Scandinavian and Nordic countries. A representative of the Norwegian government would head it. In any dispute over the interpretation of the provisions of the ceasefire agreement, the final authority will be the HEAD OF THE MISSION. And this Head is answerable only to the Norwegian government and no one else.

The ceasefire agreement (MoU) formalizes the territory controlled by the LTTE and the SL government, by demarcating a Line of Control. The final arbitrator on a dispute relating to the LoC is the HEAD of the SLMM; the SL government has no authority whatsoever, even though the entire NE continues to be part of the Sri Lankan Union. The agreement is so adhoc that even though it gives defacto control to a large part of the NE to the LTTE there is no change in the unitary character of the constitution. This method to keep the issue on a boil and maintain a vague LoC, which will be open to continuous dispute, is nothing but an imperialist ruse to keep the conflict going in order to increase its Mission strength in the region. Besides, the MoU gives no time frame for the interim administration that is to be set up in the NE, defacto giving it a semi-permanent nature. This too is purposely kept open-ended, with the US imperialists hoping to establish its control over the region, as it has done in Kosovo.

Hardly was the ink on the MoU dry when the imperialist vultures descended on Sri Lanka. On March 2, 2002, a team of international monitors, led by a retired major General arrived in SL to ‘supervise’ the truce. Major General Troud Furuhovde, formerly of the Norwegian Army, led the 16 representatives drawn from the Scandinavian countries to monitor the ceasefire that began on Feb.23, 2002. The SLMM headquarters would be based in Killinochchi and would operate through monitoring committees in six districts of the NE — Jaffna, Mannar, Vavuniya, Trincomallee, Batticola, and Ampari. The two other districts, Killinochchi and Mullaithivu, will not have monitors as they are under full control of the LTTE and not in the conflict zone. Each monitoring committee will have 5 members — 2 of the SL govt., 2 of the LTTE, and headed by an international monitor. Each committee will report to Gen. Furuhovde who will report, not to the UN, but to the Norwegian government.

In this scheme of things the US has effectively once again bypassed the UN creating a ridiculous mechanism wherein a foreign country has direct control over matters regarding a country’s sovereignty, with a foreign mercenary military force stationed there. In all disputes, it is not the Head of the Country that has the final say, but the Head of the Mission. The Norwegians were to merely ‘facilitate’ negotiations between the two sides, now they are the arbitrators themselves, dictating terms to both. No doubt, in the future the imperialists will continue to play their game of divide and rule, by keeping tensions simmering, to increase the strength and hold of their Mission in SL and the Tamil homeland. Ironically, they have set up their headquarters right next to that of Prabhakaran’s, in Killinochchi. These headquarters will house not only the International Monitoring Mission, but also the Balasingham family.

After Prabhakaran’s famous press conference, where he posed as the President of the new Tamil homeland, he moved swiftly and authoritatively to make all the Tamil formations — i.e. Muslim Tamils in the east, Indian Tamils in the tea plantations of central SL, and the various parliamentary formations representing SL Tamils — bow to his dictates.

On April 13, the leader of the SL Muslim Congress and senior cabinet minister, Rauf Hakeem, met Prabhakaran at Killinochchi, where an agreement was signed between the two. It was agreed to appoint a committee to facilitate the return of 1 lakh displaced Muslims, who were expelled from Jaffna by the LTTE 12 years ago. They discussed the issue of power sharing in the proposed new interim administration. On the very next day, A.Thondaman, senior cabinet minister and leader of the CWC (Ceylon Workers’ Congress) were summoned to Killinochchi. Though they earlier had little to do with the movement of the NE, now both sides came to an understanding to "work together for the resolution of the Tamil national question". This was followed by a meeting with parliamentarians of the pro-LTTE 4-party Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Days before this meeting Anton Balasingham had said at a public meeting that the Tamil parliamentarians would be given "guidance" on how to function. 14 parliamentarians attended this meeting in Killinochchi. It is clear from the authority he wields, even with senior cabinet ministers, that he has the full backing of the International Monitors.

With the present agreement he may have got some freedom from the Sri Lankan chauvinists, but not from the imperialists who will be breathing down his neck in his very house. No doubt, the latter will also come forth with much ‘humanitarian aid’, which will make the new Tamil power even more dependent on them. Not surprisingly, one of the demands of the LTTE, for the new interim administration, is the freedom to negotiate foreign loans. In Kosovo, after the international ‘peace-keepers’ settled down, the giant rich mines were taken over by the likes of Soros and TNCs; no doubt, here, the ports will be taken over. It is quite possible that certain deals may already be in the making. This will, of course, only come to light after the June negotiations are at an end. It would be embarrassing for both to disclose deals prematurely.

Yet, hardly has the MoU been worked out, that the US military has already made inroads into both sides of the LoC: As early as the first week of March officials of the Asia Development Bank (ADB) had already begun negotiations with the LTTE chief of the Baticaloa region (known for its port). In the first week of April top US Marines official, General Timothy Ghormley, traveled to Jaffna together with Assistant Secretary of State, Christina Rocca. Not surprisingly the General made a visit to the Eastern naval port of Trincomalee!! In addition, ‘donors’ from the imperialist countries, under UN auspices, are making a bee-line for Jaffna, with their economic packages. To make sure that no one was in doubt about US involvement in the region, Rocca held a high-level meeting with Prime Minister Wickremasinghe, not in Colombo, but in Jaffna!! For such high-level visits, with such speed, the US is making sure that the LTTE leadership would fully cooperate.

A fortnight later, on April 30th, a US warship made a 10-hour halt at the Colombo port; the first such visit in eight years. This has now been followed up by a four-day visit of the US destroyer, USS Sides to the Colombo port in the second week of May. This Naval ship is currently deployed in US’s so-called ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’.

It is quite clear, the Norwegian Mission is now acting as ‘facilitators’ for the entry of the US military into both Tamil and Singhalese areas!!

The LTTE has been strongly wooing the Indian rulers. Right at the beginning of the present negotiations, they put two demands that were conveyed through the Norwegians, to the Indian ambassador in Sri Lanka. The first was to allow Balasingham take medical treatment in India (Chennai). The second was that the peace talks itself be hosted in India, with Indian representatives attending as observers, somewhere in Tamilnadu or at Bangalore. As no proper response was received the venue is now Thailand.

As with other South Asian countries India has sought total domination of SL, and has been unhappy with the SL rulers always maintaining equidistance between Pakistan and India — in fact, very often being closer to Pakistan. During the 2000 LTTE offensive, it was Pakistan that rushed military equipment to SL, as a strong pro-LTTE lobby within the NDA led to hesitation to give open military support.

Given this inconsistent position of the SL rulers, the Indian comprador bureaucrats, and their local Tamil representatives were keen to carve out a sphere of influence in the Tamil portion of SL to further their interests. But, a separate Tamil Eelam would be politically suicidal for the Indian rulers, who have been vehemently opposing similar movements in Kashmir, Punjab and the North East. So, they whole-heartedly endorsed the earlier "devolution of powers" solution of the Kumaratunga government, which gave limited autonomy to the North and kept the Musilm-dominated east undecided. (The present MoU puts both areas under LTTE control.)

The Indian rulers were always uncomfortable with the Norwegian ‘facilitators’, obviously wondering why, after all it bootlicking, the US did not give this role to it. Now, what has been chalked out for this conflict, is surprisingly close to suggestions emanating from the US regarding the Kashmir conflict, and outright rejected by the Indian rulers. They, and particularly the BJP, would like to play second fiddle to the US in the region, but to see their own powers usurped by the US themselves is quite another matter.

No wonder the Indian rulers are a bit confused, and have not been very vocal on events unfolding in the south; but as their boss, the US is involved, they officially supported the peace process. Besides, the Indian comprador big bourgeoisie’s penetration of SL is proceeding apace. The flow of direct investment into SL from Indian corporations increased substantially in the late 1990s. In 1991, there were around 23 approved projects at an investment of SL Rs.74 crores. The figure has dramatically increased to 75 projects in 1998 with an investment of SL Rs.750 crores. Gujarat Ambuja (cement) and L & T have made major investments, and there is a plan for massive IT investments. Besides, in August 2000 the Indian govt. sold an Offshore Patrol Vessel to the SL navy worth Rs.90 crores and 3 Chetak helicopters.

During the present negotiations a section of the ruing classes have made a lot of noise for Prabhakaran’s extradition in the Rajiv Gandhi case, but the Vajpayee govt. has taken an ambivalent stand, saying that they could consider allowing Balasingham to India for treatment. Continuous high-level delegations from Sri Lanka have been visiting India, to make sure that the regional boss is not dissatisfied with what is going on there; but little is being disclosed about the content of these visits. Besides, the President and Prime Minister of Sri Lanka have always been at loggerheads, and the Indian Chanakyas are playing games between all the contending parties.

The Tamils of Sri Lanka are in for a bleak future. Though, through their two decade-long battle they have achieved some freedom from the Sinhalese chauvinists, they will continue to be enslaved by their new rulers and their Mission masters. If they want real freedom they must oppose this US plan, kick the Mission mercenaries and US vultures out of the country, prevent the Indian expansionists entering through the back-door, and build a genuine free and self-reliant Tamil Eelam, with equal rights in the community of nations. The problem with such nationality movements’ not having an anti-imperialist economic programme, building towards socialism, is that they must fall prey to one or the other imperialist power, becoming thereby, the new comprador rulers of the region. What happens is that the mere comprador rulers change; only the chauvinist oppression of the earlier rulers is put to an end. But exploitation of the system continues unabated. The victory is partial.

Besides, the existing arrangements in Sri Lanka will keep tensions simmering. There will be continuous clashes (in just the first two months there have been 200 complaints to the MoU), and the ‘Mission’ arbiters of justice will condescendingly disapprove of these ‘quarrelsome natives’, who would then need to be controlled by additional ‘civilizing’ forces.

And so Kosovo, East Timor, El Salvador, Nicaragua, etc, are being repeated in Sri Lanka. All these movements, while fighting the immediate enemy of the chauvinist rulers of the main nationality, fell prey to one or the other imperialist powers — in most cases it has been the US. The end result is enslavement one again.

In this phase of globalisation, where the sovereignty of nation-states is going to be ever more ruthlessly attacked, it is all the more important for national liberation movements to have a strong anti-imperialist content. Of course in this era of imperialism, though many movements may grow against imperialism — and are bound to grow, given the arbitrary destruction of even the limited sovereignty of third world countries under the economic banner of ‘globalisation’, and now the military banner of ‘anti-terrorism’— only those can be taken to completion that are lead by the proletariat, and their vanguard, the communist party. For, it is only by replacing the existing bourgeois system by a process towards a socialist system that real freedom and self-determination be achieved.

Bu, as the proletarian forces in the world are weak, more and more of such movements that will inevitably break out, are likely to be lead by the petti-bourgeoisie or other classes. So, they will have their limitations, but their struggles are just and against oppression. So, they must be supported. In such cases, it is the duty of the communists (i.e. Maoists) to whole-heartedly support these movements, pointing out their limitations, and trying to give them a correct orientation putting forward a consistent anti-imperialist, anti-feudal standpoint.

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