Volume 2, No. 3, March 2001

In early October, the media headlines blared : "the 12th successive normal monsoon." The stock prices rose in Mumbai’s Stock Exchange, and the finance ministry declared an expected 8% growth rate due to picked-up sales of goods in the rural areas.

Yet the reality was different. Three states were already reeling under drought by end September; two states had witnessed one of the worst floods in recent years; one third of the country had received deficient rainfall; and by early October itself 70 important water reservoirs, monitored by the Central Water Commission, was at its lowest position in the last ten years.

Yet, India had a "good monsoon" say the statistics. How did the Indian Meteorological Department achieve this magical jugglery ? Simple — the torrential floods in West Bengal and AP (which destroyed vast areas of crop) balanced out the drought in another one-third of the country (which destroyed even larger areas of crop), to give an overall deficiency of just 8% for the country’s overall average. And as, according to government stipulated norms, it was within the 10% range of the long-term average, it was considered "normal".

Yes, it is "normal" for the politicians, businessmen and urban elite, who are always well serviced with water, and thereby easily duped by statistics; but for those in the drought-stricken areas, it will be the return of last year’s nightmare — this time accentuated ten-fold due to repeated crop failures.

By end September itself mass scale migrations in search of work had begun in states like MP, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Orissa. Long before the summer, by December itself, six states of India were witnessing severe drinking water problems and lack of fodder, besides food shortages. Water riots had broken out in Gujarat, and even in a state like Haryana, in the southern region, people were finding it difficult to sustain themselves and their cattle. In Maharashtra, the Jawahar region of Thane was facing the worst drought in living memory, while areas of North Maharashtra, Konkan and Marathwada expect acute shortages in summer, due to insufficient rainfall. 12 of Maharashtra’s 36 districts are facing water scarcity. Even in Himachal Pradesh 4 of the 12 districts are facing water scarcity.

The devastation of drought is, this year, being accompanied by destructive floods. The floods in West Bengal affected 1.8 crore people in nine districts, damaged 15 lakh houses and destroyed the existing crop on 12.8 lakh hectares of agricultural land. In AP over one lakh hectares of standing crop was affected. Over 1000 people were killed by the West Bengal floods and 150 in AP.

By the end of the year, 15 crore people were already experiencing severe drought, another few crores were rendered helpless by floods. Yet, the governments at both the State and Centre, were doing nothing except resorting to publicity gimmicks and political stunts to appease public opinion.

The biggest stuntman of them all was the prime minister himself. Shedding crocodile tears, he announced a birthday gift for the drought-affected, soon after his 5-star retreat in Kerala. More concerned with how to disperse the rotting foodgrains in FCI godowns; he, announced his grandiose scheme called the ‘Antyodaya Anna Yojna’. While a committee of parliament asked the government to direct the FCI to dump rotting foodstocks into the sea; the pro-bania Vajpayee thought it better to sell it to the starving masses at Rs. 2 (wheat) and Rs. 3 (rice) a kg.

The AAY scheme entails providing 25 kg of foodgrain to families who fall into a new category called ‘poorest of the poor’. The minister directed state governments to identify these people within two months (till then they are to starve presumably), from amongst the Below Poverty Line (BPL) category. Then these people are to be issued special ration cards. But, how is a ‘poorest of the poor’ to be identified ? Not by some easily (and definitely) ascertainable method like categorising say, all those with under one hectare land; but on some arbitrary basis as ‘those who cannot afford two square meals a day.’ By keeping this category vague, the local authorities will have the power to manipulate people, money and foodgrains, while deciding who is eating ‘2 square meals a day’ and who is not!! Besides, when most state governments have not, as yet, been able to identify the BPL population and supply them with the relevant ration cards in one year’s time, how is this to be achieved in a mere two months ? The scheme is an obvious hoax which facilitates the bania-sarpanch combine siphoning of the bulk of the grains.

In addition, the PM has assured that a large part of the funds will get tied up in bureaucratic red-tape and high-tech (IT) monitoring, by appointing a ‘management group’ headed by the cabinet secretary, that will coordinate with the states through specially maintained web sites. The group, comprising secretaries of various ministries, will have to meet every 15 days, to ensure top-heavy bureaucratic control, and wastage of funds in elaborate central gatherings.

So we see that the centre is not really bothered what happens to the mass of destitutes in rural India. The AAY is only subterfuge for the BJP-led government to absolve itself for the crime of neglect and the silent massacre to come this summer. Now let us briefly look at the actual state of affairs in the drought affected regions at the beginning of the current year. With the picture already critical by winter, we can well imagine what the state of affairs would be like once summer approaches.

By end September itself Chhattisgarh was in the grip of one of its worst droughts. In many regions it received as much as 60% less than its average rainfall. Not only was 50% of the paddy crop damaged, but there was already a severe drinking water crisis. It is the worst drought in the last decade. By end October, 2 lakh people had migrated in search of work. 9 of the 16 districts have been affected by drought.

Raipur district was one of the worst affected. Even by October most rivers, nullahs and ponds had dried up. The paddy crop had been damaged in most of the districts 2215 villages. Even the Bhilai Steel Plant is in danger, as the three dams that supply it water were only half full at the end of the monsoon.

The most badly hit districts, besides Raipur, are Durg, Bastar, Bilaspur, Rajnandgao and Mahasamund. In these districts livestock were dying, lakes drying up and people were leaving in hoardes.

But the government has totally ignored the situation. Crores were spent by the MP government to set up the new capital at Raipur, but not a paisa was spent for the impending drought. The new Chhattisgarhi government has been as callous as the earlier MP government. Despite the severe drought the state government is the only one in the country where rice millers are forced to pay an excessively high levy. The drought cum levy has taken its toll of the 700 rice mills, with nearly half facing closure. This has resulted in farmers’ agitations in many parts of the new state. In Durg district, farmers took out a rally demanding release of water from the Tandula reservoir. In Bhilai district the farmers have been on the war path with a number of rasta rokos and rallies. Farmers from Mara, Torpongi and Devri took out rallies against erratic power supply.

By end November itself the MP government, based on the evaluation of the Kharif crop, declared 148 tehsils in 31 districts (of a total of 45 districts) as drought affected. In all 21,670 villages were already in the grip of a drought.

MP is reeling under one of its worst droughts ever. The current drought is even worse than the severe drought that hit the state in 1995. In 18 districts rainfall was from 20 to 40% less than the year’s average, and in 19 districts it was from 40 to 60% less. Even districts like Malwa which rarely face rainfall problems is facing scarcity. A large part of the crops of the Ratlam, and Nimar areas of the district have seen their crops dry up.

In the Jhabua district, with most of the kharif crop withering away, there is not much hope for the rabi crop as the land is parched. The region got 50% less rainfall than the year’s average. Almost the entire paddy, jowar, maize, cotton, groundnut and soyabean crops have been destroyed. Only 57 of the 269 water bodies have some water, the rest have dried up.

A similar situation exists in the districts of Khargone, Dhar and Bagawani. In Khargone, a large part of the crop grown on its 84,000 hectares has withered. In the Sundhwa-Pati area of Badwani 60% of its crops have been lost. Cattle have to trek 15 kms to drink water.

In Dhar district, just 60 kms from Indore, over 1000 villages are in the grip of a severe drought. In Bagh block thousands of adivasis have been reduced to starvation. In Jaamla village, cattle have been dying like flies ever since November.

The government, inspite of its Panchayati Raj hype, is totally insensitive to the plight of the rural populace. Though it set aside a measly Rs. 49 crore, even that has not been utilised due to bureaucratic red tape. While, the chief minister spends much time in publicising his expensive trips to the rural areas, in effect he does little. In fact the ministry spends large amounts on lavish expenditure, while millions go hungry. In the last year, just 12 ministers spent a gigantic Rs. 40 lakh on petrol. Of which the CM, Digvijay Singh himself spent Rs. 8 lakhs in the year — i.e., Rs. 2,192 per day just for petrol for his cars !! Such vast sums could feed thousands of poor, starving people.

Facing the second drought in succession, Gujarat is heading for an ecological disaster. What is particularly alarming about the recent droughts, is that even drinking water has become unavailable for vast sections of the people. Experts say that even during the countrywide famine at the turn of the century and the great Bengal famine in the 1940s, there was no drinking water crisis.

This year, of Gujarat’s 226 taluks 81 received less than half its average. These include the districts of Vadodara, Sabarkutha, Panchamahals, Narmada, Junagadh, Gandhinagar, Dahod, Bhavnagar and Amerli. Of the 25 districts, 22 have been affected by drought. According to the IMD, the Saurashtra and Kutch regions received 42% below normal rainfall. A large number of people in Rajkot and Saurashtra have started facing water problems even during winter. In Saurashtra alone 1000 tankers are already supplying water to villages and towns. The situation here is frightening. Of the 62 dams in the region, 54 had already gone dry by the 1st week of January. Cattle farmers had already began to migrate in search of fodder.

Water riots are breaking out all over Gujarat. In Saurashtra, farmers launched an agitation against the government’s decision to reserve water only for drinking water supply schemes. This has resulted in several clashes between farmers and police. Now in Saurashtra, SRP have been posted not only to protect the gold-vaults of the banias, but water at the dam sites to prevent ‘water theft’ — a phenomenan that the government says has been on the rise since December 2000. Panic stricken, a senior official of the Rajkot Municipal Corporation, said that the time is not far off, when water tankers will be hijacked and water riots will be the rule of the day.

So, rather than alleviate the people’s suffering the BJP is more interested in protecting the limited water for the business and the elite, utilising the police force to prevent ‘water theft.’ For industrial development it has recently taken huge loans from the ADB, but nothing for the drought. Besides, in the midst of the severe drought it has gone to the extent of reducing the water charges to industry from Rs. 6.5 per thousand litres to Rs. 3.25 per thousand litres (in Maharashtra it is Rs. 38 per litre and in Karnataka Rs. 65 per litre), when 12,000 villages have been declared scarcity hit. In addition the state encourages all sorts of water intensive industries, like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, dying, etc. These have further destroyed the groundwater in the Mehsana-Valsad belt due to seepage of effluents.

With this year’s rainfall shortage being even larger than last year, and with the government’s warped priorities, the masses of Gujarat will not only face a famine-like situation this summer but even acute drinking water shortage.

Rajasthan is facing the third successive drought. It is one of the worst in the past century. The shortfall in rain this year is even more than that of last year. By end November itself it was reported that 30,583 villages in 31 districts (out of 32) are drought affected (compared to 23,406 villages in 26 districts last year). This constitutes 74% of the total villages of Rajasthan. Crops have been damaged in 87.5 lakh hectares out of a total sown area of 112.7 lakh hectares. The total loss to the kharif and rabi crops because of drought is estimated at Rs. 3,649 crores in 2000-2001.

All villages in the 5 districts of Dungarar, Jalore, Jhumjhunn, Rajsamund and Tonk are reeling under drought. Jaipur is the worst hit, with 2158 out of 2312 villages reporting 75% to 100% crop damage. In Udaipur, of the 2,375 villages only one village has lost less than 50% of the crop. In Ajmer district, by mid-January over 1 lakh people had migrated to the cities in search of work, and thousands of cattle have been taken in search of fodder. In Bhilwara district 1777 out of the 1780 villages were in the grip of drought. The 3 lakh people of Bhilwara town face acute drinking water shortage — the villagers were even worse off.

Most reservoirs have dried up. By October itself, around Jaipur, the small dams and reservoirs that had water during this time last year, were dry. Water in the Rana Pratap dam and Gandhi Sagar Dam dropped to its lowest level in twenty years.

While the Congress (I) government is doing a major show of begging for funds from the Centre, there has been a criminal waste of funds already existing. It is reported that the Rs. 205 crores available under the ARWS (Accelerated Rural Water Supply Scheme) was diverted to pay the enhanced perks and emoluments to the ministers and MLAs; and to hold grandiose events like the International Rajasthani Conclave.

With areas struck by the super cyclone (see box on page 23) still to recover from the horrifying trauma, the tribal areas of West Orissa are facing the spectre of severe drought this year. Jharsuguda experienced rainfall 67% below normal, in Deogarh it was 55%, in Naupada it was 50%, in Sambalpur 48%, in Bargarh 44%, in Sundargarh 43%, and in Bolangir 48% below normal. Crop losses in these regions vary from 40% in Naupada to as much as 75% in Jharsuguda and Bolangir. The government has declared 11,807 villages of 19 districts as drought-hit, where there has been a minimum of 50% crop-loss. 24 of Orissa’s 30 districts have been affected by drought.

Even in the coastal regions, after the cyclone, there is now a drought. The districts of Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada have witnessed crop losses of 50% and 40% respectively. It is estimated that more than half of Orissa is in the midst of a drought.

Bolangir district has been particularly hit hard, with suicide and starvation deaths already being reported. The death of Premashila in December 2000 rocked the state. The doctor’s post mortem report said that she had not eaten anything for three days before her death. The district was fast heading towards extreme shortage of both food and drinking water. By December, over 1 lakh people had migrated. Almost all the river and rivulets had dried up by winter.

With the situation deteriorating not only has the state government done next to nothing, its request of funds to the centre has been ignored. Lately, with much fanfare, the BJD government has launched a scheme for sinking tubewells. But, such tubewell sinking is nothing new, it is part of World Bank policy for decades. In many backward regions even the stipulated BPL rice did not reach for two months. With this the traders made a fortune out of people’s misery — open market prices of rice sky-rocketed. Besides, the Western region have been totally neglected by successive governments. Irrigation in Jharsuguda is just 1% and in Bolangir 3% of the total cropped area. It is said that Bolangir district is slowly turning into a desert.

With the shortfall in rain in the last monsoon being far greater than that of the previous year, and with drought conditions already manifesting in winter, we can imagine the devastation likely this summer. In the previous year’s shortage we have already seen its impact last summer (See June 2000 issue People’s March).

The reality is that the scale of drought and famine is increasing with each year—it is becoming endemic to the very system. And will in due course reach a scale as seen in the British Raj.

These droughts are a direct result of economic reforms, the continuing semi-feudal relations in agriculture, and the fruits of the anarchic and destructive growth in productivity through the green revolution.

‘Economic reforms’ reduces drastically public expenditure on agriculture; it cuts subsidies to the agriculturists; it disbands welfare schemes to the poor; it defacto ends distribution of cheap foodgrain; it de-industrialises the economy increasing thereby the burden of population on land; it destroys handicrafts to allow the imperialists/compradors to capture even their market, resulting in mass bankruptcy and thereby an even further burden on the land; and it enhances the cost of inputs to agriculture (fertilisers, pesticides, water/electricity charges, etc) and allows agricultural commodity prices to be depressed (through imports etc) resulting in continuous losses and an increased debt burden on the peasantry. As a result of these reforms, the peasantry has already been sapped of any reserves that may exist, and even a minor fluctuation in production creates a disaster.

The backward semi-feudal relations in rural India keeps the bulk of agriculture in a perpetual state of stagnation. Except for the small pockets of development (which is also in crisis today) the vast peasantry either lives a hand-to-month existence on small fragmented plots of land, or as poor and landless peasants who are even unable to meet subsistence levels of existence. With growing unemployment, and new generations coming into existence, the pressure on land only adds to this putrified state of existence. And it was on top of this state of stagnation, with little or no other source of income, and heavily indebted to the moneylender-trader combine, that the ‘economic reforms’ was introduced with its devastating impact.

Finally, the crisis of the ‘Green Revolution’, is the last straw that has broken the peasant’s back. Decline in productivity due to degradation of the soil, and a decline in surplus due to the unfavourable terms of trade, are the twin gifts of the World Bank sponsored Green Revolution.

The green revolution sprouted on anarchic tapping of groundwater (and not through surface irrigation schemes which would have cost the government heavily) and the massive infusion of fertilisers, pesticides etc. The former has destroyed the water table, the latter the top soil. Added to this, the aggressive destruction of forest (and/or replacement with mono-cultures like teak and eucalyptus) has further destroyed both top soil and water table and even affected the rainfall regularity. All this has resulted in increasing droughts and floods, and declining productivity of the soil and even its desertification in some areas.

So we find, that these three factors — ‘economic reforms’, stagnant semi-feudal agriculture and the green revolution — all interwoven with each other, has so devastated Indian agriculture, that its recovery would require such a drastic and radical programme, making it inconceivable within this system. On the contrary the policies actually being implemented, at both state and central level only aggravate the existing situation and, in fact, push it from bad to worse. No wonder, the people are crying out for an agrarian revolution.

(Note : Terms of trade are defined as the ratio of agriculture commodity prices to manufactured product prices)

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